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How can CSK still qualify for the IPL 2022 Playoffs?

CSK have managed to win only 3 out of 10 games in this IPL season so far.

Sudharshan Sridharan Author

Updated - 5 May 2022 11:25 am

Chennai Super Kings despite being the defending champions of IPL have failed to impress with their performance in this season as they have managed to win only 3 out of the 10 games so far. CSK appointed Ravindra Jadeja as their new skipper ahead of the start of IPL 2022 and under him Chennai managed to win only 2 (against RCB & MI) out of 8 matches.

MS Dhoni unexpectedly took over captaincy in middle of the season and under him so far CSK has defeated SRH by 13 runs and lost a match to RCB by same margin of 13 runs.

Now, here in this article we will have a look at the remaining schedule of CSK and other teams to know about the best possibility for CSK to enter the playoffs stage easily.

CSK’s remaining schedule:

vs DC at DY Patil Stadium, 8 May (7:30 PM)
vs MI at Wankhede Stadium, 12 May (7:30 PM)
vs GT at Wankhade Stadium, 15 May (3:30 PM)
vs RR at Brabourne Stadium, 20 May (7:30 PM)

To have best possibility for CSK, they should end up winning their remaining 4 matches of this season to end at 14 points maximum.

When it comes to net run rate teams like SRH, DC, RR are having good positive NRR while teams like RCB and PBKS are having a negative NRR. Hence, if CSK gets tied with other team on same points it would be better if they equal with RCB (or) PBKS.

IPL 2022 Points table:

– GT 8 out of 10 wins
– LSG 7 out of 10 wins
– RR 6 out of 10 wins
– RCB 6 out of 11 wins
– SRH 5 out of 9 wins
– PBKS 5 out of 10 wins
– DC 4 out of 9 wins
– KKR 4 out of 10 wins
– CSK 3 out of 10 wins
– MI 1 out of 10 wins

Now, GT is already having more than 14 points and LSG if they lose all games they will remain at 14 points. But LSG’s NRR looks a big challenge for CSK to surpass so, we assume GT and LSG to win as much as possible.

According to the above scenario:

– RR should lose all their matches to stay at less than 14 points.
– RCB should not win more than 1 match to stay at less than or equal to 14 points.
– SRH should not win more than 1 match to stay at less than 14 points.
– PBKS should not win more than 2 matches to stay at less than or equal to 14 points.
– DC should not win more than 2 matches to stay at less than 14 points.

Note:- Equal to condition is taken for RCB & PBKS as they have lesser NRR.

KKR will be facing LSG twice. We are taking a case of LSG defeating KKR twice, and they can’t win 7 matches in total and eliminate them.

MI can’t win 7 matches in total overall as they have already lost 8 out of 14 games. Hence, they are also eliminated.

Now, we will proceed with how the results of RR, RCB, SRH, PBKS and DC should come for CSK to enter Playoffs:

1. RR will play PBKS, DC, LSG and CSK in their upcoming schedule. If RR loses all their games then PBKS and DC will already get 1 win out of this situation.

2. RCB will play SRH, PBKS and GT in their upcoming schedule – maximum can win 1 out of these.

3. SRH will play DC, RCB, KKR, MI and PBKS in their upcoming schedule – maximum can win 1 out of these.

4. PBKS will play RR, RCB, DC and SRH in their upcoming schedule – maximum can win 1 out of these.

5. DC will play SRH, CSK, RR, PBKS and MI in their upcoming schedule – maximum can win 1 out of these.

Remaining matches among RCB, SRH, PBKS & DC in the schedule:

– DC vs SRH
– SRH vs RCB
– RCB vs PBKS
– PBKS vs DC
– SRH vs PBKS

Case1: DC defeats SRH

– DC will complete their quota of 1 win. Thus in PBKS vs DC game, PBKS must win.

– PBKS must lose in both RCB vs PBKS and SRH vs PBKS game as PBKS completed their quota of 1 win vs DC.

Now, after all SRH and RCB will face each other so either SRH (or) RCB will get their 2nd win, thus this scenario can’t happen.

Case 2: SRH defeats DC

– SRH will complete their quota of 1 win. Thus, SRH must lose to both RCB and PBKS.

Now, RCB and PBKS will face each other as well so either RCB (or) PBKS will get their 2nd win, thus this scenario can’t also happen.

Hence, we have come to a conclusion that keeping RR at 12 points it’s impossible for CSK to qualify.

So, like GT and LSG we assume RR also to win as many games as possible and dominate this IPL 2022 Points table.

We will try a points table where

GT, LSG, RR end up getting > 14 Points
CSK = 14 Points
RCB, PBKS </= 14 Points
DC, SRH< 14 Points.

Among the 4 teams (RCB, PBKS, DC & SRH) only DC has got the freedom of winning 2 more games and still have less than 14 points.

We take DC defeat SRH and PBKS in their upcoming schedule and loses their remaining matches to CSK, MI and RR.

SRH and PBKS have been taken as victim of DC since they are major contenders for that 4th spot hence a loss for them will make the work more easier for CSK.

SRH can defeat either RCB or PBKS in their upcoming schedule
RCB can defeat either SRH or PBKS in their upcoming schedule
PBKS can defeat either RCB or SRH in their upcoming schedule

If all these happen then

CSK & RCB will have 14 points exactly
DC, PBKS, SRH will have less than 14 Points

CSK can qualify with 14 points as NRR of CSK is slightly above NRR of RCB already.

For CSK to qualify, the remaining game results should look similar to this to make it happen:

Match 50 – DC beat SRH
Match 51 – GT vs MI (Any result is fine)
Match 52 – RR beat PBKS
Match 53 – LSG beat KKR
Match 54 – SRH beat RCB
Match 55 – CSK beat DC
Match 56 – MI vs KKR (Any result is fine if KKR defeat LSG. Else MI should beat KKR)
Match 57 – LSG vs GT (Any result is fine)
Match 58 – RR beat DC
Match 59 – CSK beat MI
Match 60 – RCB beat PBKS
Match 61 – KKR beat SRH
Match 62 – CSK beat GT
Match 63 – LSG vs RR (Any result is fine)
Match 64 – DC beat PBKS
Match 65 – MI beat SRH
Match 66 – LSG beat KKR
Match 67 – GT beat RCB
Match 68 – CSK beat RR
Match 69 – MI beat DC
Match 70 – PBKS beat SRH

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