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March 28, 2022 will witness two first-timers play their first match in the Indian T20 League. It will be the battle between Gujarat and Lucknow at the Wankhede Stadium in Mumbai. It will be interesting to see what these new additions to the tournament have to offer to the competition.
KL Rahul will lead Lucknow in their inaugural season and it will be Hardik Pandya who will be seen in a different avatar this time around after being appointed the captain of the franchise for the first time. Rahul, of course, has led Punjab in the past.
While there are few stats to play around these new sides, here is nonetheless an attempt to make some predictions based firmly on statistical assumptions.
1. Toss Possibility
For beginners, both these sides haven't played a game so there is no historical data. However, KL Rahul was the captain of the Punjab last season and had managed to win just 2 of the last 5 tosses. This means, in the last 5 matches of the tournament, Rahul has won 40% of the tosses. Hardik Pandya, who will make his captaincy debut, at the outset has a 50 per cent probability of winning the toss. So in that sense, Hardik and Gujarat, have a better chance of winning the toss. However, it largely remains uncontrollable.
2. Win Possibility
Again no data to work with here but KL Rahul has been one of the consistent performers in the tournament in recent years and has also been working on his strike rate, which has often attracted a bit of criticism. Along with him, the likely opener is Quinton de Kock who again is a proven performer at the top of the order. In contrast, Gujarat might open with Wriddiman Saha and Shubman Gill, who can be great on their day but in comparison to Rahul and De Kock lack conviction as an opening pair. Overall too, Lucknow seems a bit more well-rounded on paper.
3. Team of the Day
Lucknow Super Giants but since this is the first match for both sides, there is no head-to-head data for these teams at this venue. This is based purely on the reputation of players and existing stats in T20 cricket.
4. Powerplay Score
The average powerplay score (last 5 matches) before the 2022 opener at Wankhede was 47.2 for 1.7 wickets. Even if we treat the Chennai vs Kolkata match as an aberration, Lucknow are more likely to reach near this figure at the end of powerplay overs, given Rahul and De Kock's ability at the top. On the other hand, if Saha is in the XI, his role will definitely be to make the best use of fielding restrictions while Gill eases into his innings and unleashes his range of shots. While Gill and Saha both strike below 130 in IPL (Gill- 123.0, Saha- 128.74); Rahul's overall strike rate in the tournament is 136.38 and De Kock also strikes at over 130.
5. First innings & Second innings scores
The average score batting first in the last 5 matches before the 2022 tournament opener was 180 but the first match saw Chennai ended up scoring only 131. If that is anything to go by, the average score would have come down. Having said that, Chennai did not bat as well as they could have. Still expect the team batting first to target a 170+ score.
The average score batting second is around 156.4 at this venue so anything over 160 could be a challenging total but teams would continue to look to chase with dew being a factor.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed within this article are the author’s point of view. They neither reflect the opinion of SportsTiger nor advise anyone to make any prediction based on this. SportsTiger does not assume any responsibility and liability for the same.