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IPL 2022 has seen 32 out of 74 games being played and teams like Gujarat Titans, Royal Challengers Bangalore, Rajasthan Royals, and Sunrisers Hyderabad have really done well so far to make themselves favourites to lift the IPL 2022 trophy. Here in this article, we will have a look at how the table stands and whether teams like Mumbai Indians and Chennai Super Kings have got any possibility to reach the playoffs. We have dived deep to see what's the maximum number of wins needed for a team to secure a playoffs spot comfortably and also have looked at the scenario of MI (or) CSK to see the minimum number of wins needed mathematically to reach playoffs (if other results go in favour of their team).
1. Minimum number of wins needed to assure a birth in Playoffs at this stage
GT has won 5 out of 6 matches in IPL 2022 so far and stands at the top of the table currently.
Remaining 8 matches of GT in IPL 2022:
vs KKR on 23rd April
vs SRH on 27th April
vs RCB on 30th April
vs PBKS on 3rd May
vs MI on 6th May
vs LSG on 10th May
vs CSK on 15th May
vs RCB on 19th May.
Case 1:
Assume Gujarat wins 4 out of 8 remaining games (defeat PBKS, MI, LSG & CSK) and finish the table with 9 wins out of 14 games in IPL 2022.
- RCB wins all their remaining 7 games then they will have 12 wins out of 14 games.
- SRH wins their remaining 6 out of 8 games (loses both to RCB) then they will have 10 wins out of 14 games.
- KKR wins their remaining 6 out of 7 games (lose a game to SRH alone) then they will have 9 wins out of 14 games.
- RR wins their remaining 6 out of 8 games (loses to RCB and KKR) then they will have 10 wins out of 14 games.
Top-4 will be RCB (12 wins), SRH (10 wins), RR (10 wins) and one of them between KKR (9 wins) or GT (9 wins). Thus we can see a team with 9 out of 14 wins also being eliminated from the playoffs.
Case 2:
Now if GT wins 10 out of 14 games in IPL 2022.
Teams that can win 10 (or) more games in this IPL season:
- RCB, RR, SRH at max can win 12 games
- LSG, DC at max can win 11 games
- KKR and PBKS at max can win 10 games.
Now, RCB will face RR once & SRH twice in their schedule. assume these 3 teams win as many games as possible.
RCB with 12 wins
- RR with 11 wins (lose to RCB and win other games)
- SRH with 10 wins (lose to RCB twice and win other games).
RCB with 11 wins
- RR can be with 12 wins (or) 11 wins (may or may not lose to RCB)
- SRH can be with 10 (or) 11 wins (At max can defeat RCB once, if RR lose to RCB)
RCB with 10 wins
- RR can be with 12 wins (or) 11 wins (may or may not lose to RCB)
- SRH can be between 11 (or) 12 wins (should have defeated RCB once, if RR defeats RCB)
Now the above case is possible only if GT loses to RCB twice and SRH once. GT must win their remaining 5 games against KKR, PBKS, MI, LSG & CSK to make it 10 out of 14 wins.
- LSG at max can win 9 games (lose to RR & GT)
- PBKS at max can win 7 games (lose to RR, GT, RCB & SRH)
- DC at max can win 8 games (lose to RR twice & SRH)
- KKR at max can win 7 games (lose to GT, RR & SRH)
Thus RCB, RR, SRH and GT will be the only team to have 10 (or) more wins in IPL 2022 and can qualify.
Similarly, we can take scenarios with LSG and DC also winning as many games as possible to verify whether 4 teams with 10 wins get a sure berth or not in the playoffs.
Now, DC will face PBKS and LSG once in their upcoming schedule.
Assume DC win all their remaining games and ends with 11 wins in IPL 2022:
- PBKS at max can have 9 wins (as they lose to DC) which is less than 10.
- LSG at max can have 10 wins (as they lose to DC)
- SRH at max can have 11 wins. (as they lose to DC)
- RR at max can have 11 wins (as they will lose to PBKS). but RR will face LSG in upcoming schedule and for LSG to have 10 wins they must defeat RR, so RR at max can have 10 wins.
- RCB at max can have 12 wins but if SRH has 11 wins then RCB can have only 10 wins as RCB and SRH face each other twice in upcomimg schedule. So for convinence we will keep in upcoming RCB vs SRH clashes once RCB wins and once SRH wins. then SRH will have 10 wins while RCB at max can have 11 wins.
now RCB will also face RR in their upcoming clash, so for RR to have 10 wins then RR must defeat RCB. hence RCB can have at max 10 wins.
Now, if GT wants 10 out of 14 wins then they have to win remaining 5 out of 8 games (can't afford to lose more than 3 matches).
GT will be facing RCB twice, SRH and LSG once. They should defeat either of the team once to have 10 out of 14 wins at end of league stage. hence one of RCB, SRH or LSG will have less than 10 wins.
- KKR can have 10 wins only if they win all their remaining games but that isn't possible according to the above scenario as they will face DC in upcoming schedule (which will make it less than10)
So two out of (LSG, RCB, SRH), RR and GT will be the teams to have 10 wins the table and these four will qualify for playoffs.
Similarly, can do for other cases and verify that a team with 10 out of 14 wins definitely gets a chance to enter playoffs in the current scenario.
Note:- As the tournament progresses we can witness a team qualifying with 7 (or) 8 wins also to playoffs based on other team results but as of current calculations a team with 9 wins can also be eliminated (a very rare case).
2. Minimum number of wins needed to have a small mathematical chance to enter playoffs
Now, we will have a look at whether CSK or MI with 6 wins has a chance to qualify for playoffs mathematically.
MI remaining schedule :
vs CSK on 21st April
vs LSG on 24th April
vs RR on 30th April
vs GT on 6th May
vs KKR on 9th May
vs CSK on 12th May
vs SRH on 17th May
vs DC on 21st May
Here we assume MI win 6 of their remaining 8 games. In this case, we will ensure teams other than RCB & GT lose as many games as possible
- Teams like RR, LSG and SRH shouldn't win more than 2 games (at max 6 wins).
If
1. RR defeats DC (Once), LSG and loses their remaining games
2. LSG defeats KKR (Once), DC and loses their remaining games
3. SRH defeats PBKS, KKR and loses their remaining games
- Teams like PBKS and KKR to win not more than 3 games (at max 6 wins)
If
1. PBKS defeats DC, LSG, RR and loses their remaining games
2. KKR defeats GT, LSG (Once), RR and loses their remaining games
- Teams like DC to win not more than 3 games. So we assume DC defeats RR (Once), KKR, and CSK in the remaining schedule of IPL 2022.
This is one of the scenarios to ensure a team with 6 wins gets qualified. Thus a team like MI (or) CSK with 6 wins also can qualify at the end if everything goes in favour of that team.
Note:- All these are valid till DC vs PBKS match number 32 of IPL 2022.