As the WTC'21-23 cycle comes to its business end with just 3 more Test series left to be played, a lot of Test cricket followers are very interested to know which two teams will qualify for the marque event. Teams like England, Bangladesh & Pakistan have already played 6 different Test series in the WTC'21-23 cycle and here in this article, we will have a look at what all teams have to do to qualify for WTC 2023 finals.
Remaining Test Series in WTC'2021-2023 Cycle:
IND vs AUS 4-match series (Feb-Mar 2023)
SA vs WI 2-match series (Feb-Mar 2023)
NZ vs SL 2-match series (Mar 2023)
|Team||Pts (%)||Max Pts (%)||Min Pts (%)|
In the above table, Pts represents the % of points accumulated by a team currently while Max & Min Pts represent the maximum & minimum Pts % that can be earned by each team assuming none of these gets penalized.
Now Pakistan will remain at 38.1% which will be less than min pts % of AUS, ENG, IND, SL & SA thus Pakistan can never end up in the top-2 position and thus they are ruled out of WTC 2023 finals.
If New Zealand manages to beat Sri Lanka by 2-0 in the upcoming Test series, then they would end up at a maximum of 38.46% which is again less than min pts% of AUS, ENG, IND, SL & SA thus they are also ruled out of WTC 2023 finals.
Bangladesh with 11.11% also will get ruled out of WTC 2023 finals like Pakistan and New Zealand.
The other Six teams AUS, IND, SL, SA, ENG & WI have a chance to enter WTC 2023 finals with AUS & IND having more probability than the other four teams. Here in this article, we will have a look at what all these 6 teams need to do to qualify for WTC 2023 finals.
Australia have almost become the first team to enter WTC 2023 finals.
- The only way Australia can be eliminated is if they lose to India by a 0-4 margin and Sri Lanka beat New Zealand by a 2-0 margin then India (68.055%) and Sri Lanka (61.11%) will qualify for WTC 2023 finals ahead of Australia (59.64%).
- Even if the IND-AUS Test series ends in a 3-0 margin then Australia will qualify for the WTC 2023 finals with 61.40% ahead of the Sri Lankan side who can maximum end with 61.11%.
Thus, the Aussies just need to ensure at least 1 draw in the 4-match Test series against India to confirm their birth in WTC 2023 finals.
- If AUS lose to IND by a 0-4 margin, then one of the Test matches in 2 match series between SL and NZ must end in a draw for Australia to qualify for WTC 2023 finals.
India have a good chance to qualify for WTC 2023 finals if they beat Australia in the upcoming home series by a 3-1 margin.
- If India win the Test series by a 3-1 margin, then they will end at 62.5% which will be greater than the max pts (%) of SL (61.11) & SA (55.55) thus they will qualify without depending on other teams' results.
If India wins by a 3-0 margin, then they will end up at an even better position of 64.35% to qualify for WTC 2023 finals
- If India win the Test series by 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 (or) drawn by a 2-2 margin then one of the Test matches between SL & NZ must end in the draw for India to qualify for WTC 2023 finals.
- If India end the Test series with result of 0-0, 0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 1-1, 1-2, 1-3 then they need to depend a lot on other teams' results in the upcoming series between NZ-SL & SA-WI game.
|NZ-SL (min req. )||1-1||0-0||1-0||1-0||1-1||1-1||1-0|
|SA-WI (min req. )||1-0||1-0||1-1||0-1||1-0||1-0||0-0|
Based on the IND-AUS series' results mentioned above, the minimum eligibility of NZ-SL & SA-WI should satisfy as shown above.
If India lose to Australia by a 0-4 margin, then they will be eliminated.
3. Sri Lanka:
Sri Lanka have a chance to enter WTC 2023 finals
- If they manage to beat NZ by a 2-0 margin and India fail to beat Australia in at least 3 out of 4 Test matches.
- If Sri Lanka manage to win at least 1 out of 2 Test matches then they will end up between 52.7% to 55.55%. For Sri Lanka to still have a chance at least 1 match in the SA-WI series should end in a draw and in the AUS-IND series, India shouldn't win more than 1 Test match.
|IND-AUS (min req.)||1-1||1-3|
Based on the NZ-SL series result the minimum eligibility of IND-AUS should satisfy as shown above. If Sri Lanka ends up with 1 or 2 draws without a single win against NZ then IND must lose the series by a 0-4 margin or at max by 0-3 (or) 0-2 margin respectively.
4. South Africa:
South Africa have a chance to enter WTC 2023 finals
- If they manage to beat WI by a 2-0 margin, and India win lesser than 2 out of 4 Test matches against Australia and Sri Lanka must also lose 1 Test match to New Zealand.
- If SA manage to win only 1 out of 2 Tests against WI, then IND shouldn't win any Test matches against Australia and at maximum India can have only 1 (or) 2 drawn Tests alone. SL also shouldn't win a single Test match against New Zealand
England, currently at 46.97% should hope that IND, SL & SA lose as many games as possible. For England to qualify:
- IND must lose to AUS by a 0-4 margin
- SL must lose to NZ by a 0-2 margin
- SA must lose to WI by a 0-1 margin.
If WI wins both Test matches then they reach 50% and go past England in Pts (%) thus WI must win 1-0 against South Africa.
6. West Indies:
West Indies team can maximum reach a tally of 50% if they win by a 2-0 margin vs SA. even a 1-0 win vs SA will rule them out of WTC 2023 finals as they end up with 44.44% only which is less than min pts (%) of AUS, ENG & IND.
Thus, for WI to qualify for WTC 2023 finals:
- WI beat SA by a 2-0 margin
- SL must lose the series to NZ by a 0-1 (or) 0-2 margin.
- IND must lose the series to AUS by 0-4, 0-3 (or) 0-2 margin.