The Denver Nuggets won their first NBA Finals game in team history on Thursday, downing the Miami Heat 104-93 at home in a game that wasn’t near as close as the final score suggests. Playing on nine days of rest, the Nuggets didn’t deal with any early rust. Denver amassed a more than 20-point lead in the first three quarters, and the Heat weren’t able to pull off another one of their patented comebacks.
Nuggets Favored to Claim Championship
Heading to Miami with the series tied, the Nuggets are solid favorites to claim their first NBA Finals championship in their more than 50-year franchise history, listed as high as -210 to win it all this season. They’re listed at or around -130 to win Game 3 of the Finals on the road on Wednesday at some of the best sports betting apps in the country. Odds can vary dramatically from sportsbook to sportsbook (as can the promotions that the books offer), so make sure you shop around first if you want to bet on the Nuggets, the Heat, or any other sport or franchise so that you know you’re locking in the best possible odds.
Here’s a look at what happened in Denver to open the series and trends to keep an eye on as the series continues. For the Heat, this is a familiar position… even a comfortable one. Even after they took commanding 2-0 and 3-0 series leads against the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals, bookies and projections still favored the Celtics to come back in the series (despite the fact that no team in NBA history has ever made it back from a 3-0 deficit to win a series).
Heat Thrive in the Face of Doubt
The Heat know that many don’t believe in them, they hear the doubters, and they somehow feed off that energy and find another gear. Going into a road game that no one expects them to win (in an arena where no road team pulled off a victory in roughly two months, no less) and escaping with a narrow victory is precisely the sort of performance we’ve come to expect from this Heat team. Guard Gabe Vincent stepping up during a down night for Butler was just the next chapter in their comeback-centered story.
Butler's Impact and Miami's Challenge
Butler had a stormy shooting night in Game 1, scoring just 13 points on 6-of-14 shooting: it isn’t just that the shots weren’t falling. He wasn’t taking them with the same reckless abandon he usually does, passing up excellent scoring chances (literally and metaphorically) as he opted to pass the ball to his teammates instead of making shots himself. In Game 2, he put up 21 points on 7-of-19 shooting as the shots still weren’t falling like he’s used to.
Butler is the heart and soul of this Miami team. He’s the reason the Heat made it this far, making impossible comebacks with lights-out shooting and lockdown play on the other end of the court.
Given Denver’s depth and scoring versatility, Miami was a long shot to win this series, even if Butler is firing on all cylinders. Miami is in an excellent position now, holding home-court advantage for the rest of the series after splitting the first two games, but Butler needs to put it all together to get me to buy in.
The good news for the Heat is that Butler has shown an excellent ability to turn the page. Even if he hasn’t made a shot for the first 47 minutes of a game, he’s still who you want with the ball in his hands as the final seconds tick down, previous misses eliminated from his mind as he thrives at the moment.
Miami's Defensive Dilemma
While Heat center Bam Adebayo put on an excellent offensive showing in Game 1 (as Vincent did in Game 2), Miami probably doesn’t have the firepower to keep up with Denver, even though they have one of the best defenses in the league. If the Heat wants to block the paint to stymie Nuggets center (and two-time league MVP) Nikola Jokic, they have to deal with guard Jamal Murray picking his shots from downtown, as Jokic is one of the best passers in the league.
The big man won’t hesitate to kick the ball outside, racking up an average of 9.8 assists per game as he came within a hair of averaging a triple-double for the season. Each team has things to improve on as the series progresses, as well as reasons to hope they’ll do so.
Flashes of Dominance and Butler's Clutch Potential
Denver has shown moments of dominance in the early stages of both games, indicating a promising outlook for their performance moving forward. On the other hand, Miami managed to steal Game 2 with a solid fourth quarter, even without Butler performing at his best. If Butler can tap into his clutch gene again during the upcoming games in South Florida, the Nuggets could find themselves in trouble.