World Test Championship Cycle 2021-2023 has seen lot of ebbs and flows so far and the cycle has finally resumed in December month after a long gap as the focus was majorly on T20I games in the last 2-3 months. All teams have played minimum of at least 4 Test series in this cycle so far, thus the World Test Championship is about to reach its business end and here in this article we will see which teams are in contention for WTC 2023 final.
WTC'2021-2023 Points Table:
Points table updated as on 12th Dec 2022.
Left out series for the above teams in WTC 2021-23 cycle:
1. Australia:
3 match series vs SA in 2022/23 (Home)
4 match series vs IND in 2023 (Away)
2. South Africa:
3 match series vs AUS in 2022/23 (Away)
2 match series vs WI in 2023 (Home)
3. Sri Lanka:
2 match series vs NZ in 2023 (Away)
4. India:
2 match series vs BAN in 2022 (Away)
4 match series vs AUS in 2023 (Home)
5. England:
Only one test match left vs PAK at Karachi in 2022
6. Pakistan:
One Test match vs ENG at Karachi in 2022
2 match series vs NZ in 2022/23 (Home)
7. West Indies:
2 match series vs SA in 2023 (Away)
8. New Zealand:
2 match series vs PAK in 2022/23 (Away)
2 match series vs SL in 2023 (Home)
9. Bangladesh:
2 match series vs IND in 2022 (Home)
Now, looking at the points table and remaining schedule, teams like Australia, South Africa & India seem to have very good chance of finishing at top-2 position in points table. Let us have a look at how many games the above teams need to win to secure a spot for themselves in WTC 2023 final.
1. Australia have 7 games left. Assuming they don't get any penalty, (or) drawn games (due to poor weather) their percentage will be as mentioned below:
o out of 7 wins : 47.36%
1 out of 7 wins : 52.63%
2 out of 7 wins : 57.89%
3 out of 7 wins : 63.15%
4 out of 7 wins : 68.42%
5 out of 7 wins : 73.68%
6 out of 7 wins : 78.94%
7 out of 7 wins : 84.21%
If Australia win their remaining 3 out of 7 games then they can seal a spot into WTC'23 final as only India and South Africa have a mathematical chance to go past Australia.
If India lose 1 out of their remaining 6 games, then their points % will be 62.5% (135 pts in 18 games) and if South Africa lose 1 out of their remaining 5 games, then their points % will be 66.67% (120 pts in 15 games).
thus, in a worst case scenario, Australia confirm a birth to WTC 2023 finals along with South Africa if they manage to win minimum of 3 games.
If Australia wins lesser than 3 games then they need to depend on other teams and might be out of WTC 2023 final.
2. South Africa have 5 games left. Assuming they don't get any penalty (or) drawn games (due to poor weather) their percentage will be as mentioned below:
0 out of 5 wins : 40%
1 out of 5 wins : 46.66%
2 out of 5 wins : 53.33%
3 out of 5 wins : 60%
4 out of 5 wins : 66.66%
5 out of 5 wins : 73.33%
If SA wins 3 off their remaining 5 games then Australia must lose at least 1 game as they play 3 vs Australia and 2 vs West Indies. In the worst case scenario, let us assume Australia beat South Africa by 2-1 margin.
Now, coming to India-Australia series, the points % of Australian team will be if the series result is
0-4 : AUS- 57.89%; IND - 68.055%
1-3 : AUS - 63.15%; IND - 62.5%
2-2 : 68.42%; IND - 56.94%
3-1 : 73.68%; IND - 51.38%
4-0 : 78.94%; IND - 45.83%
Indian team % is calculated on assumption that they beat Bangladesh team by 2-0 margin. South Africa with 3 wins can't enter WTC 2023 finals if India beat Bangladesh by 2-0 and Australia by 3-1. Thus they must ensure they win 4 of their 5 games to confirm a final spot without depending on other team results.
3. India have 6 games left. Assuming they don't get any penalty (or) drawn games (due to poor weather), their percentage will be as mentioned below:
0 out of 6 wins : 34.72%
1 out of 6 wins : 40.27%
2 out of 6 wins : 45.83%
3 out of 6 wins : 51.38%
4 out of 6 wins : 56.94%
5 out of 6 wins : 62.5%
6 out of 6 wins : 68.05%
If India win their remaining 5 out of 6 games then they must win at least 3 out of 4 games against Australia.
Now Australia can maximum afford to lose 4 games as we saw in point (1) thus they must beat South Africa by at-least 2-1 margin to be in contention for WTC finals if they lose to India by 1-3 margin.
If South Africa lose 2 games to Australia then they can maximum end up with 60% only which is lesser than India's 62.5%. So, if India wins 5 out of their remaining 6 games then they proceed to WTC 2023 finals along with South Africa (or) Australia.
4. Sri Lanka have 2 games left. Assuming they don't get any penalty (or) drawn games (due to poor weather) their percentage will be as mentioned below:
0 out of 2 wins : 44.44%
1 out of 2 wins : 52.77%
2 out of 2 wins : 61.11%
Sri Lanka has a chance to enter WTC 2023 finals if they beat New Zealand by 2-0 and both India and South Africa lose 2 games.
Maximum possible WTC points % for other teams like
Pakistan - 54.76%
West Indies - 50%
New Zealand - 48.71%
England - 46.96%
Bangladesh - 27.77% (Eliminated officially)
All the above five teams aren't in contention practically as they can't reach 60% criteria and thus they have to heavily depend on other team results permutation and combination to qualify for WTC 2023 finals.
Hence, looking at above calculations we can say Australia, India, South Africa and Sri Lanka (to an extent) are in contention for WTC 2023 final race.