The Royal Challengers Bengaluru could be arguably the most consistent team in the tournament as they haven’t had many areas of concern from the start to the end. The defending champions haven’t been bothered one bit by the aberrations that they faced with a couple of losses. They haven’t fidgeted with their team combinations as their changes have been mostly forced and other than that, they have backed most of their out-of-form players. RCB have dominated many of the matches they have played in the season and they have never been in doubt for qualification.

With 16 points already in the bag for RCB, their chance for elimination would be relatively less but not impossible. There still are many teams who could reach or cross the 16-run mark and their playoff spot could be under a mild threat. The main advantage that they possess is their Net Run Rate as it is the best in the tournament and they will not be bothered as much until they lose by a heavy margin. Here are some of the possible scenarios of RCB being eliminated:

1)The Fundamental Requirement

For any of the scenarios to come into effect, RCB will have to lose both their remaining games against PBKS and SRH. The scenario does seem unlikely with the form of RCB and the losing streak of PBKS, but we know that anything could be possible in the high stakes scenario of the Indian Premier League.

Read Also: PBKS still qualify for the IPL 2026 Playoffs

2. The Nightmare Scenario

If RCB loses both games and stays at 16 points, they can only be eliminated if four other teams completely take over them on total points or have an edge over RCB in terms of the Net Run Rate.

For RCB to drop to 5th place, the following series of results would have to happen simultaneously:

  • Gujarat Titans (GT) must win at least one of their remaining games (vs KKR or CSK) to reach 18 or 20 points, moving ahead of RCB.

  • Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH) must beat RCB and win their other match against CSK to finish on 18 points, jumping past RCB.

  • Punjab Kings (PBKS) must beat RCB and win their remaining match against LSG to reach 17 points, clearing RCB.

  • Rajasthan Royals (RR) or Chennai Super Kings (CSK) must win out. RR has the potential to reach 18 points. If CSK wins their remaining games, they can reach 16 points.

Read Also: Can RR still qualify for the IPL 2026 Playoffs

3. The Net Run Rate scenario

Even if the above win/loss conditions are met and multiple teams tie with RCB on 16 points, RCB holds a massive trump card: their +1.053 NRR. For RCB to be eliminated on NRR at 16 points:

  • Their two defeats to PBKS and SRH would have to be catastrophic, massive margins of defeat

  • Teams like CSK (+0.185) or RR (+0.082) would simultaneously need to pull huge, margin-heavy victories to completely have an edge over RCB in terms of NRR